mid rising doubts about Governor George W. Bush's readiness for higher office, support for him among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire has slipped dramatically, leaving the once prohibitive favorite deadlocked with Senator John McCain, according to a new Globe poll.
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N.H. POLL TRACKER
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Republican
If the Republican primary were being held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
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McCain
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37%
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Bush
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33%
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Forbes
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13%
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Don't know
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10%
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Keyes
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7%
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Bauer
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1%
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Hatch
|
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0%
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Boston Globe/WBZ poll of 400 likely Republican primary voters con ducted Dec. 15-16. Margin of error: +/- 5%. [ Story ]
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After his lackluster showing in his first two televised debates, Bush's once commanding lead has evaporated, and the notion that he is far and away his party's most formidable general election candidate has ebbed, according to the poll.
Most troublesome for the governor, the poll shows that voter preference for Bush, which had been lodged above 40 percent for several months, has now dipped to just a third of those who say they plan to vote in the Feb. 1 GOP primary.
Overall, McCain now leads Bush, 37 to 33 percent, a substantial change from last month, when Bush held a double-digit lead over his challenger. That means the race is statistically deadlocked, since the potential margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
McCain has pulled roughly even with Bush among registered Republicans, the poll found, and he now enjoys a commanding lead over Bush among Independent voters. Further, the percentage of Independent voters who now say that Bush is not qualified to be president has doubled since late November.
The poll of 400 Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters also shows that publisher Steve Forbes' more conservative appeal has gained some momentum since he won the editorial backing of the Manchester Union Leader newspaper. Now, 13 percent say they support Forbes.
Among the other candidates, former diplomat Alan Keyes was supported by 7 percent, while 1 percent chose former Reagan administration official Gary Bauer. Not one voter polled expressed a preference for Utah Senator Orrin G. Hatch.
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday evenings for the Globe by KRC Commmunications Research.
Other recent polls have shown McCain achieving parity with Bush. But even more worrisome for Bush, the Globe poll shows that voters who had been planning to support the Texan are now drifting away, leaving Bush with a task more formidable than holding onto his supporters: Now, he must win them back.
The poll, like the reviews of Bush's debating performance so far, contains little solace for the candidate who has already raised more money than anyone who has ever sought the White House.
For example, the poll shows that Bush's overall popularity among likely primary voters has slipped, while McCain's has soared to heights most politicians never attain: By a ratio that now approaches 8-1, the voters view the Arizonan favorably.
As voters consider their choices, high favorability ratings are critical for candidates; seldom will voters cast their ballot for someone they do not like. In light of that, Forbes appears to have a comparatively small chance to increase his share of the vote in the next seven weeks. Just 42 percent in the poll have a favorable view of him, while 28 percent rate him unfavorably.
Bush remains popular despite some slippage. His favorable-unfavorable rating is 63 percent to 17 percent, down from 73 percent to 13 percent when the Globe polled in late November. The most evident loss of popularity for Bush is among those who rated him extremely favorably, down from 29 percent to 19 percent of primary voters.
In contrast, McCain's popularity has only increased; among all those polled, it is now 76 percent favorable, and 10 percent unfavorable.
The poll suggests some reasons why voters are climbing down from the Bush bandwagon. Last month, the polling hinted at a problem for Bush: Just 31 percent of GOP primary voters were willing to say they were ''very confident'' that the second-term governor has the background and experience needed to be president. At the time, 47 percent said they were somewhat confident and 16 percent were not confident at all.
In the latest poll, those who are ''very confident'' dropped to 28 percent of those sampled. Now, just 42 percent said they are somewhat confident, and the portion of the sample that is not confident at all has risen to 23 percent.
That shift in attitude is most apparent among the Independents. The percentage of those voters who are not confident that Bush is ready to occupy the Oval Office has jumped, from 16 to 31 percent, over the last three weeks.
On another measurement, one that could be critical to sustaining Bush's prospects, is whether voters see Bush as their party's strongest general election candidate. Several months ago, in numerous polls, large majorities among Republican voters said Bush would be the most formidable candidate the party could field in November.
That too has changed. In the new poll, when the voters were asked which candidate would be the party's strongest nominee in November, regardless of who they support in the primary, 49 percent picked Bush. For McCain, the number is 27 percent.
In GOP primary voter preference, McCain has pulled into a statistical tie with Bush among registered Republicans. Among i ndependents - 24 percent of the total sample - McCain has a large lead over the governor, 45 to 19 percent.
McCain also has a slightly larger lead overall among voters who said they are paying close attention and among voters who call themselves moderates.
