Exit polls: Conservatives rally to Bush but Engler's impact limited
By Will Lester, Associated Press, 02/22/00
 Michigan, Arizona are 'do or die' for McCain
Exit polls: Conservatives rally to Bush, but Engler's impact limited
Bush still favored, but big winner is Gore
Bush relied on outside help, while McCain pitched to Catholics
Struggle for GOP presidential nod a tale of two constituencies
Bush got no lift from his governor-in-arms
A look at voters' thinking in Michigan and Arizona:
PARTY MEMBERSHIP:Just over half of voters were independents or Democrats, and they overwhelmingly backed Sen. John McCain. Texas Gov. George W. Bush easily won among Republicans, taking two-thirds of that vote. But McCain won two-thirds of the independents and 80 percent of the Democrats.
NEW TO THE GOP:Nearly one in three voters were participating in their first Republican primary, and they preferred McCain by a 2-to-1 margin.
PHILOSOPHY:McCain won among the self-described liberals and moderates, who together made up about half the electorate. Bush easily took the conservatives.
ENGLER INFLUENCE:Michigan Gov. John Engler, a Bush supporter, may have hurt more than helped. Only about 15 percent of voters said Engler influenced their vote "a great deal," but those voters went for McCain, nearly 3-to-1. About half of voters said Engler's endorsement of Bush didn't matter at all.
RELIGIOUS RIGHT AND ABORTION:Bush took two-thirds of Christian conservative voters and had a solid edge among those who believe abortion should be illegal all or most of the time. But about four out of 10 voters said abortion should be legal all or most of the time, and McCain took a solid majority of these votes.
STRAIGHT TALKER:About half of voters said McCain says what he believes and not just what people want to hear. Only about four in 10 said the same about Bush.
ISSUES:Moral values was the most popular issue, and most people who chose it also chose Bush. Bush also took those who picked taxes or abortion. But McCain won large majorities of those most interested in world affairs, campaign finance reform, education or the combination of Social Security and Medicare.
QUALITIES:Bush won among voters who most wanted someone who could win in November or someone who best represents conservative values. McCain took those who cared most about a candidate's military record or who wanted someone who was not a typical politician.
BLACK VOTE:Only about one in 20 voters was black, mostly Democrats who crossed over into the GOP primary, and they overwhelmingly went for McCain.
INCOME:McCain's supporters tended to have lower incomes; Bush backers were generally wealthier.
VETERANS:McCain took a majority of the veterans and managed to edge Bush among non-veterans.
UNION VOTERS:McCain took a majority of union voters in Democratic households, but Republican union workers were more likely to vote for Bush.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE:Most voters thought campaign finance reform would help, not hurt, the political process. A majority of them preferred McCain.
TIMING:About four in 10 voters made their minds up within the past week.
ATTACKS:About four in 10 voters said Bush attacked McCain unfairly, and nearly as many said that of McCain.
BUSH SMARTS:About one in three voters said Bush does not have the knowledge needed to serve effectively as president.
McCAIN HYPOCRISY:More than four in 10 voters said McCain says one thing and does another on campaign finance.
ACROSS THE BOARD:McCain won in every age, income and education group.
VETERANS:McCain overwhelmingly won veterans, and he took a majority of non-veterans, too.
PARTY MEMBERSHIP:McCain won a majority of Republicans and an overwhelming majority of independents.
IDEOLOGY:Bush won a majority of those who called themselves very conservative, but McCain took the liberals, moderates and somewhat conservative voters.
BUSH STRONGHOLDS:McCain did reasonably well even among groups that are natural Bush strongholds. He took two in five votes among those with a favorable opinion of Bush and one in five of those who thought Bush has a better chance than McCain to win in November.
CONSERVATIVES:The most conservative voters preferred Bush. He and McCain split the religious right, those who believe abortion should always be illegal and those who said cutting taxes is more important that strengthening Social Security. McCain solidly won the group that said Social Security was the priority.
TEMPER:About one in four voters said McCain didn't have the temperament to serve effectively as president, and Bush took the overwhelming majority of these votes.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE:Most voters said campaign finance reform will help, not hurt, the political process. McCain won two in three of their votes. Bush easily took the group that said it will hurt.
STRAIGHT TALKER:About six in 10 said McCain says what he believes and not just what people want to hear. Only about four in 10 said the same about Bush.
ISSUES:McCain overwhelmingly won groups who said world affairs, campaign finance reform or the combination of Social Security and Medicare was the most important issue. He also won those who cared most about moral values or education, though it was not as lopsided. Bush easily won those who picked abortion or taxes.
QUALITIES:McCain was winning among those who cared most about a candidate's military record, about picking someone who was not a typical politician and someone who stands up for what he believes in. Bush was winning those who most wanted someone who could win in November or who best represented conservative values.
GENDER:Most of Bush's supporters were women, and most of Alan Keyes' backers were men. McCain's supporters were closely divided between men and women.
The exit polling was conducted by Voter News Service, a consortium of the AP and television networks ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC.
In Michigan, the poll results were from interviews of 2,284 voters in 45 precincts around the state. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, larger for subgroups.
In Arizona, the poll results were from interviews around the state of 2,136 voters in 40 precincts on Tuesday and 260 absentee voters surveyed by telephone Feb. 15-19. The margin of sampling error for the combined results was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, larger for subgroups.
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WASHINGTON -- John McCain successfully countered George W. Bush's conservative appeal in Michigan on Tuesday by building a big advantage among moderates and by reaching broadly outside the party, exit polls indicated.
Democratic participation in Michigan's Republican primary was twice that of four years ago.
Democrats and independents heavily favored McCain, while Bush was drawing strong support from Republicans. GOP voters made up less than half the total voters, according to exit polls by Voter News Service taken for The Associated Press and the television networks.
Four years ago, Republicans made up almost two thirds of the total vote in the state's GOP primary.
In Macomb County just north of Detroit, independent voter Linda Szymanski, said she voted for McCain because: "I like the honesty thing."
"I think he deserves a shot at least of making it to the general election," said the 45-year-old mother of two. "I'm not real happy with the presidency and the Bush family line and the Clinton family line. I'd like to see some honesty in there."
Michigan Gov. John Engler's high-profile and personal push for Bush appeared to pay few dividends.
A sixth of voters interviewed in exit polls said he had a great deal of influence on their decision -- but they tended to vote for McCain. About the same number said he influenced them somewhat and they tended to back Bush. Half said he was not an influence at all. Engler said his failure to counter McCain's Democratic appeal might have been "a big strategic error."
Most voters said they wanted a candidate who was not tied to Republican party leaders, and they tended to vote for McCain.
In Arizona, McCain was backed overwhelmingly by most demographic groups in his home state, according to the exit polls. McCain even led Bush among self-described Republicans in Arizona.
MICHIGAN
Both candidates put most of their campaigns' emphasis on Michigan, where some Republican voters expressed concern about the role played by non-Republicans.
Steve Comben, a 40-year-old computer developer and conservative who generally votes Republican, said he made certain to vote for Bush because of concerns the race would be tight. And he was worried about "the concerted effort by Democrats to drum up support for McCain just to spite Engler."
Bush, governor of Texas, had better than a 2-to-1 edge among Republicans, while McCain had a similar edge among independents and an 8-to-1 advantage among Democrats, who made up almost a fifth of the electorate.
Three fourths of Bush's overall vote was Republican and the rest independent. Conservatives made up two-thirds of Bush's support, while moderates made up a third. Four of 10 were religious conservatives, while just over half were not. Almost two-thirds were abortion opponents. More than half his supporters thought issues were more important than personal qualities.
A fourth of McCain's supporters in Michigan were Republican, four of 10 were independent and almost a third Democrats. Almost half described themselves as moderate, just over a fourth were conservative and a fourth said they were at least somewhat liberal. Almost six of 10 of his voters said personal qualities were more important.
McCain seemed to connect with Michigan voters on themes that helped him win big in New Hampshire.
About half of Michigan voters credited McCain with saying what he believes and not just what people want to hear. Only about four in 10 said the same about Bush. About half said McCain was a real reformer, while just over a third said Bush was a reformer. McCain won a majority of the veterans, about a fifth of all voters.
The poll results were from interviews of 2,284 voters in 45 precincts around Michigan. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, larger for subgroups.
ARIZONA
In Arizona's GOP primary, McCain was winning among those who cared most about a candidate's military record, about picking someone who was not a typical politician and someone who stands up for what he believes in. Bush led among voters who most wanted someone who could win in November or who best represented conservative values.
Marie Neville, 74, of Phoenix said her vote for McCain was as much a vote against Bush.
"I don't like George Bush because he always has a smirk on his face," she said, "and I think any president that has a grin on his face all the time is probably going to lie to the American people."
In Arizona, the poll results were from interviews around the state of 1,411 voters in 40 precincts on Tuesday and 260 absentee voters surveyed by telephone Feb. 15-19. The margin of sampling error for the combined results was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, larger for subgroups.
