Candidates tweak message for New Hampshire terrain
By Rob Fournier, Associated Press, 01/25/00 WASHINGTON -- The winners and losers of Iowa's caucuses shouldn't read too much into the results. New Hampshire, the current stop on their presidential journey, is new and unpredictable terrain.
The Granite State is dramatically different: The voters, the issues, the balloting, even the makeup of the presidential field. "What a difference a day makes," said Republican Steve Forbes, who finished a strong second in Iowa and hopes to improve his dismal New Hampshire poll numbers before the state's primary next Tuesday. "This state is a different arena for many reasons." Let us count the ways:
The candidates are tweaking their messages for the new landscape. Now that McCain is back in the picture, Bush plans to criticize his rival's education plans. School issues play particularly well to a moderate electorate. McCain is airing ads that portray him as the most fit to be commander-in-chief, part of a broader strategy to quietly raise doubts about Bush's readiness. Mindful of the dramatic improvements in New Hampshire's economy since 1992, Gore has begun asking the question, "Are you better off than you were seven years ago? The answer is clearly yes." Bradley's advisers keep promising to capitalize on New Hampshire's independent nature by attacking Gore's so-called "old politics." The results are anybody's guess. On the Republican side, the questions are whether Forbes can make an impact and, if so, does he hurt Bush or McCain? Forbes said Bush is vulnerable to a conservative challenge, pointing to entrance polls showing that Iowans tended to back Forbes if taxes or abortion were their top concerns. "I think we're going to have a dramatic three-way race in New Hampshire," Forbes said in a telephone interview. The Bush and McCain camps said Forbes hit his high-water mark in Iowa, and won't be a threat next week. Flying overnight from Iowa to New Hampshire, Bush said in an interview that he and McCain are getting large percentages of the GOP vote in polls. "That doesn't leave a lot of the vote left to carve up," he said. McCain's top strategist, John Weaver, said there are too few conservatives to help Forbes in New Hampshire. "There is only limited growth room for someone who campaigns that far hard right," he said. McCain may be the big loser if Forbes does well. Analysts say the conservative millionaire could siphon from McCain those voters who don't like Bush or who are looking for a political outsider. Dave Carney, a New Hampshire Republican consultant who is not tied to any campaign, said Bush's Iowa win burnished his image as the most electable Republican. "I think of lot of people who had been flirting with McCain will return to Bush," he said. A small but influential percentage of New Hampshire's' independent voters may determine the race. They swing between Democrats and Republicans each election but have been moving toward the GOP -- mostly to McCain -- in recent weeks. Robin Marra, pollster at Franklin Pierce College in New Hampshire, says 36 percent of independents a month ago had planned to vote in the GOP primary. The figure rose to 52 percent by late January. "I think that Iowa will further push independents to the Republican side," he said. But that doesn't necessarily mean McCain will continue to benefit. If the new terrain includes a revitalized Forbes, some independents may peel off to him. That would help the Texas governor, too. |