After Iowa: On to New Hampshire

By Laurie Kellman, Associated Press, 01/24/00

CAMPTON, N.H. -- Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire has presidential races on both the Republican and Democratic sides that are too close to call -- thanks to independent voters and effective appeals from well-funded insurgents.

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS
Republican
97% of precincts reporting
Bush 41%
Forbes 30%
Keyes 14%
Bauer 9%
McCain 5%
Hatch 1%
Democrats
98% of precincts reporting
Gore 63%
Bradley 35%
Percentages will not necessarily add to 100.

MORE COVERAGE
FROM THE GLOBE
Bush, Gore wrap up Iowa
The votes tell the contentment
Lesson of Iowa: Counterattack quickly
Candidates have one goal remaining: closing the deal
Tight-three way race in New Hampshire envisioned
Gore plays it cool and girds for battle
Hatch to announce he's quitting race
Small-town USA sees big time turnout at polls
On the road in N.H., McCain dismisses Iowa
Sharing quarters, but ever so briefly

EARLIER NEWS
Gore, Bush easy winners of Iowa caucuses
Voters say Bush best choice on moral values, can win in November
Democrats: Iowa picks fighter Gore over Bradley's fresh start
Republicans: Bush aims to use caucus victory to set up showdown with McCain
Fiery Keyes gets strong caucus support
Down-home politics shape Iowa
Iowa's only the first step in picking nominee
With a final flury, candidates focus on turnout
Former president waits nervously as son competes in Iowa caucuses
After Iowa: On to New Hampshire

ABOUT THE CAUCUSES
How Iowa caucuses work
Why they are important

ABOUT IOWA
Population: 2.85 million.
Registered voters: 1.8 million -- 36 percent unaffiliated, 32 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat.
Percentage of voters attending GOP caucuses in 1996: 17 percent.
Race: 97 percent white. 2 percent black. 1 percent Asian. 2 percent Hispanic origin.
Median age: 36.3.
Median household income: $33,877.
Poverty rate: 9.4 percent.
Unemployment rate: 2.7 percent.
Abortions: 9.8 per 1,000 women in 1995, compared with the national average of 22.9 per 1,000.
1996 vote: 50 percent Clinton; 40 percent Dole; 9 percent Perot.
Average life span: 77 years, compared with the U.S. average of 75.
Housing: Just over 72 percent of Iowans own their own homes, national average 66.3 percent.
Crime rate: 3,816 victims per 100,000 people in 1997, vs. national average of 4,923.
Tax burden: On a per-person basis, Iowa paid $4,530 in federal taxes in 1997 and got back $4,661 in federal spending.

"It's going to be very close," contended Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., on Monday after two-fisting his way through donuts, coffee and gummy bears toward his 100th town hall-style meeting in Plymouth.

Challengers are supposed to say such things. But the polls suggest McCain is right. Both he and Democratic former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey pose strong challenges in New Hampshire -- to George W. Bush and Al Gore respectively -- in part because they have spent so much time here and have surged in fund raising overall.

Most polls show McCain is tied with or even leading national front-runner Bush here after a year of McCain conducting question-and-answer sessions with voters. Bush, the Texas governor, has spent more of his campaign time in Iowa and other states.

With the Iowa caucuses over, everyone was heading to New Hampshire where McCain has had things pretty much to himself. Bush's camp was betting that his return to New Hampshire would cut into McCain's "time advantage" because, aides said, their polls show a rise in Bush's popularity when he is in the state.

"We've been fighting on multiple fronts and now we won't have to any more," said Bush spokeswoman Karen Hughes.

New Hampshire has a tight Democratic nomination fight, as well.

Gore, who has the edge according to several recent polls, will build on his groundwork argument that Bradley would be a bad steward of the economy. He also will emphasize his own role in Clinton administration successes and pledge to "do even better."

But Bradley's laid-back style and promise to tackle big problems such as health care still seem to be playing well in New Hampshire, a state with a history of backing underdogs. The tone will change this week: Bradley's advisers say the former New Jersey senator plans to sharpen his rhetoric against Gore, working harder than ever to draw distinctions between the two campaigns' approach to politics and policy.

"He will talk about it very forcefully and the differences will be very clear," adviser Anita Dunn said. Bradley plans to set the tone with a speech early Tuesday.

"We'll continue to draw the contrasts between boldness vs. caution, big picture vs. small picture, new politics vs. old," said spokesman Eric Hauser. "He'll be very passionate about it."

For the candidates, Iowa and New Hampshire are potential momentum machines to propel them through contests in other early primary states. This year, the sprint is especially intense because about three-quarters of the parties' national convention delegates will be chosen by March 15.

Granite State voters have a long tradition of independence and a demand to meet the candidates in person. And the results here don't necessarily bode for a nomination win in the end: In the past two elections, each party has seen a candidate win here who lost the nomination fight -- Pat Buchanan for the Republicans in 1996 and Paul Tsongas for the Democrats in 1992.

Tsongas' widow, Niki, is featured in a new Bradley ad that is to begin airing Tuesday. She says Bradley is like her husband in supporting working people and "big ideas."

New Hampshire allows voters to leave their party affiliation undeclared until the moment they walk into the polling place. It also allows them to change back to undeclared before they leave.

The result is more undeclared voters than there are registered members of either major party -- roughly 274,000 undeclared to 265,000 Republicans and 197,000 Democrats.

Such voter independence requires the candidates to switch from their Iowa methodology of building county-by-county statewide organizations to more of a footrace from voter to voter.

"I think the candidates have to be more specific here," said Scott King, 47, an undeclared voter who owns a landscaping business in Holderness but has also lived in Iowa. "We look more at the man than the party."

McCain skipped campaigning in Iowa in part because he lacked a strong enough statewide organization there. He has stayed mostly in New Hampshire during the early primary season holding "town hall"-style meetings with small groups of voters. A year ago, those meetings drew a few dozen residents; his 100th one Monday at the New Hampshire National Guard armory in Plymouth drew about 400 people.

McCain is switching from bickering with Bush over taxes to making the case in a new television ad that he is the only candidate qualified to serve as the nation's commander-in-chief.

Bush, meanwhile, took time out from a campaign stop at Iowa State University in Ames to tape an ad for New Hampshire designed to remind voters about his own record and positions.

His plan is to do a lot of retail campaigning, mostly in the vote-rich southern tier of the state. He said in Iowa Monday, "I think the strategy is pretty much the same as it's been here; see as many people as I can, shake as many hands, reminding people that elections are not won by polls, but by people going to the polls."