Al Gore gets out vote   Vice President Al Gore waves to the crowd of supporters at a campaign victory party at the Iowa State Fair Grounds in Des Moines, Monday. (AP Photo)

Gore wins big in Iowa, Bush best Forbes in tighter GOP race

Keyes a strong third among Republicans

By Ron Fournier, Associated Press, 01/24/00

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Republican George W. Bush won Iowa's kickoff caucuses Monday night, besting upstart Steve Forbes to set the stage for a three-way presidential primary fight in New Hampshire. Democrats gave Al Gore a thumping win over Bill Bradley who said he had "a little more humility" and vowed to push his challenge.

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS
Republican
97% of precincts reporting
Bush 41%
Forbes 30%
Keyes 14%
Bauer 9%
McCain 5%
Hatch 1%
Democrats
98% of precincts reporting
Gore 63%
Bradley 35%
Percentages will not necessarily add to 100.

MORE COVERAGE
FROM THE GLOBE
Bush, Gore wrap up Iowa
The votes tell the contentment
Lesson of Iowa: Counterattack quickly
Candidates have one goal remaining: closing the deal
Tight-three way race in New Hampshire envisioned
Gore plays it cool and girds for battle
Hatch to announce he's quitting race
Small-town USA sees big time turnout at polls
On the road in N.H., McCain dismisses Iowa
Sharing quarters, but ever so briefly

EARLIER NEWS
Gore, Bush easy winners of Iowa caucuses
Voters say Bush best choice on moral values, can win in November
Democrats: Iowa picks fighter Gore over Bradley's fresh start
Republicans: Bush aims to use caucus victory to set up showdown with McCain
Fiery Keyes gets strong caucus support
Down-home politics shape Iowa
Iowa's only the first step in picking nominee
With a final flury, candidates focus on turnout
Former president waits nervously as son competes in Iowa caucuses
After Iowa: On to New Hampshire

ABOUT THE CAUCUSES
How Iowa caucuses work
Why they are important

ABOUT IOWA
Population: 2.85 million.
Registered voters: 1.8 million -- 36 percent unaffiliated, 32 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat.
Percentage of voters attending GOP caucuses in 1996: 17 percent.
Race: 97 percent white. 2 percent black. 1 percent Asian. 2 percent Hispanic origin.
Median age: 36.3.
Median household income: $33,877.
Poverty rate: 9.4 percent.
Unemployment rate: 2.7 percent.
Abortions: 9.8 per 1,000 women in 1995, compared with the national average of 22.9 per 1,000.
1996 vote: 50 percent Clinton; 40 percent Dole; 9 percent Perot.
Average life span: 77 years, compared with the U.S. average of 75.
Housing: Just over 72 percent of Iowans own their own homes, national average 66.3 percent.
Crime rate: 3,816 victims per 100,000 people in 1997, vs. national average of 4,923.
Tax burden: On a per-person basis, Iowa paid $4,530 in federal taxes in 1997 and got back $4,661 in federal spending.

"I can't wait to get to New Hampshire," was Gore's battle cry and he said he'd be campaigning Tuesday at dawn.

The results set the stage for a dramatic week in New Hampshire, first in a furious flurry of primary elections that could determine the presidential nominations by March 7.

Bush described the caucus results as validation of his compassionate conservative agenda. "It's a solid victory and I'm humbled," he said as the presidential campaigns put the best-possible spins on their finishes. The Texas governor called his victory "record-shattering" and roused supporters with the vow, "tonight is the beginning of the end of the Clinton era."

Forbes was at least as happy with the results, saying, "We vastly overperformed the polls and have emerged as the conservative candidate" going into New Hampshire.

Forbes told AP that, "we vastly overperformed the polls and have emerged as the conservative candidate" going into New Hampshire.

Gore outpolled Bradley 63 percent to 35 percent, and the former New Jersey senator said, "Tonight I have a little more humility but no less confidence that I can win and do the job."

Looking ahead to New Hampshire, Gore and Bradley were locked in a tie in Granite state polls. Sen. John McCain of Arizona holds a slight lead over Bush in most New Hampshire GOP polls, and he hoped to sustain it even after bypassing Iowa. Forbes has been a distant third in New Hampshire, but hoped his Iowa showing would improve his numbers.

With results from 95 percent of Iowa's counties, Bush had 41 percent of the caucus vote and Forbes 30 percent. Former ambassador and talk show host Alan Keyes was a respectable third at 14 percent, with Gary Bauer at 9 percent, John McCain 5 and Orrin Hatch just 1 -- not even 900 votes.

Hatch planned a news conference Tuesday, and an adviser said he was likely to drop out of the race. Bauer was said to be deeply disappointed and assessing the future of his candidacy, but told 50 supporters he would forge on to New Hampshire. "I wasn't raised to be a quitter," he said.

Bush noted that the highest percentage achieved by a GOP victor in Iowa was 37.4, when Bob Dole beat Pat Robertson before stalling in New Hampshire.

The Iowa process will yield 47 delegates to the Democratic convention and 25 delegates to the GOP convention, a tiny fraction of the total a candidate needs to win the nomination.

AP's delegate count showed Gore with 29 and Bradley 18. Bush was likely to earn 10 delegates, compared to eight for Forbes, four for Keyes, two for Bauer and one for McCain.

Forbes mounted, and funded, a particularly vigorous campaign here, calling on fundamentalist and conservative support to challenge the more moderate Bush. McCain passed up the contest to focus on more independent-oriented New Hampshire. Keyes bested Bauer in their duel for GOP social activists, dealing his rival a staggering blow.

Gore's big margin blunted Bradley's challenge going into New Hampshire where Bradley has polled even with Gore, or even ahead. In a sign of the tit-for-tat to come, Gore accused Bradley of "going negative" in the final days of the Iowa race -- and said the tactic backfired.

"I think it was a mistake for his campagn to go to the so-called negative approach but I'm not complaining," Gore said. "But based on what I've heard from from the voters out here they didn't expect that and didn't like it."

Bradley congratulated the vice president for his "strong showing," giving no hint of what aides say are plans to be more critical of Gore in coming days.

The caucuses were expected to draw no more than 100,000 voters from each party, concluding a lengthy runup of debates, fund raising and grass-roots campaigning here. Iowa launches the presidential race into a frantic six-week stretch, with the New Hampshire primary a week away.

Iowans were attending caucuses across the sprawling state. In a display of basic grass-roots politics, voters here brave the winter weather and visit classrooms, libraries, fire stations, church basements, grain co-ops and even a few private homes to play their unique role in the American political system.

Bush voters identified moral values and taxes as their top issues, and said they voted for Bush because they believe he can win in November. Among Forbes voters, the top issue was taxes and the top quality was that Forbes stands up for what he believes in. These findings resulted from pre-caucus interviews conducted by Voter News Service.

Enroute to the early contests, Republicans squabbled over taxes and abortion, courting religious conservatives who make up a third of the caucus-going population. Bush carefully calibrated his antiabortion views to make clear his opposition to the Supreme Court ruling. Democrats were poised to campaign on the issue if Bush were to win the GOP nomination.

Gore and Bradley differed in tone more than substance. They wrestled primarily over alternative approaches to federal health insurance policy. While Bradley promised to provide big ideas to solve a few big problems. Gore said the next president should not limit himself to a handful of issues.

After a ragged start, Gore led Bradley by more than 20 percentage points in most pre-caucus polls. A string of setbacks, including recurrence of a minor heart condition, threw Bradley off track in the final week.

On the Republican side, Bush's totals tracked his showing in pre-caucus polls. Forbes did better than polling had suggested, siphoning off votes from three others competing for the same pool of conservative votes. Entrance polls showed that one third of voters who identified themselves as conservative Christians supported Forbes, another third supported Bush and the remainder were split among the other candidates.

It was one of the most expensive caucuses in history, with millions spent on TV alone. Forbes spent far more than anyone -- about $3.2 million, according to aides from the Forbes and Bush campaigns. Bush spent at least a million dollars less.

The Democrats spent about $1.5 million each -- closer to $2 million for Bradley, according to the Gore camp.

The parties conducted their caucuses in slightly different ways.

Democrats elect county convention delegates reflecting their presidential preferences, discuss platform issues and elect precinct leaders. Republicans elect precinct leaders, hold a straw poll for president, elect delegates to the county conventions and consider platform issues.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, Democrats turn their attention to an unprecedented mountain of primaries from New York to California on March 7. Republicans will compete in several states before March 7, including Delaware on Feb. 8, South Carolina on Feb. 19 and Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 22.

Most candidates see Iowa as a tempting jumping-off point.

Jimmy Carter was a little-known Georgia governor when his 1976 Iowa campaign catapulted him onto the national scene and put the caucuses on the political map.

Since then, Iowa has been an important but often unreliable barometer of presidential mettle. For every eventual nominee who has won Iowa -- Republican Bob Dole in 1996 and Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984 -- the state has yielded many more surprises.

Ronald Reagan lost in 1980, and his foe George Bush declared he had "Big Mo" heading into New Hampshire. But Bush's momentum dissipated in a high-stakes debate there and Reagan went on to the nomination.

Gore, heading for a last-place finish in Iowa in 1988, left the state to campaign elsewhere, dismissing the caucuses as "a real arcane procedure that produces crazy results."