ASHUA, N.H. - For Steve Forbes, a campaign that has drained nearly $29 million from his personal fortune has so far yielded little more than false hopes. But after a disappointing finish last night, the Forbes campaign is relying on one last scenario for success: a wide open race that one adviser called ''a political mosh pit.''
After a surprisingly strong finish in last week's Iowa caucuses, Forbes was primed for a surge that might push him into the top tier of Republican presidential candidates with Texas Governor George W. Bush and Senator John McCain of Arizona.
But by the time the results rolled in last night, there were clear signs that Forbes's efforts to establish himself as ''the true conservative'' in the race had not captured New Hampshire voters.
Aides vigorously ruled out the possibility that Forbes would drop out of the race soon, and they said the idea had not even been discussed yesterday. But they admitted a strong showing in the Feb. 8 Delaware primary, which Forbes won as a candidate in 1996, would be crucial.
In New Hampshire, Forbes relied heavily on talk radio and television interviews to pitch his flat tax and vehement opposition to abortion. But in recent days there was little of the enthusiasm here that Forbes generated in Iowa, where McCain did not compete.
Except for a short burst of chants and cheers when Forbes appeared at his primary night party at the Nashua Marriott hotel, the gathering was a brief and forlorn affair.
Before Forbes spoke last night, perhaps 200 people chatted quietly in the ballroom as the roar of McCain supporters blared from giant television screens tuned to CNN.
Yesterday, Forbes advisers said they had been boxed out by the battle between Bush and McCain, which pushed the Texan into a more conservative niche than he had sought - and one that Forbes had hoped to fill.
McCain took a more moderate position than Bush on taxes and campaign finance reform, leaving little room for Forbes to pound Bush from the right as a timid moderate, aides said.
''We could never get legs on the right against Bush,'' said one senior Forbes adviser. ''He looked like the conservative who was going to challenge McCain.''
Forbes campaign manager Bill Dal Col added that many conservatives had backed McCain not because they like the Arizonan, but with the sole aim of handing the Texas governor a damaging defeat.
But Forbes's advisers said they found hope in last night's results, arguing that McCain's resounding win had shattered Bush's aura of invincibility, and that conservative voters who once backed Bush for pragmatic reasons might now unite behind a more ideological candidate like Forbes.
''Most conservative voters will say, `Our heart's with Steve, but Bush is going to win,''' the Forbes aide said. Now, he said, ''voters might say that if Bush can't win, I'm not going to vote for him.''
Last night's results, aides said, have created a chaotic ''political mosh pit'' in which any candidate can seize control of the race.
The hope of the Forbes campaign is that under the new scenario, conservative voters abandoning Bush will find McCain too moderate.
''Now, I make this appeal to conservatives who may have backed others because of inevitability,'' Forbes said last night. ''I plead with you: Please come home.''
