Why they voted the way they did

By Laura Meckler, Associated Press, 02/01/00

NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS
Republican
98% of precincts reporting
McCain 49%
Bush 31%
Forbes 13%
Keyes 6%
Bauer 1%
Democrats
98% of precincts reporting
Gore 52%
Bradley 47%
Percentages will not necessarily add to 100.

FROM THE GLOBE
* Democrats fight to a close finish
* Independents turn GOP contest
* Contrarians speak up, leaders get wake up call
* Arizona senator has found strength in his weaknesses
* Independent voters say character was key to decision
* Why they voted the way they did
* Result no setback for Bush backer Cellucci
* Primary shows off NBC synergy
* Independents seen taking up the insurgents' fight
* Bauer, Keyes unbowed as they vow to soldier on
* Forbes hopes to make it a three-way race
* Bush campaign says it's ready to move on
* In Granite State diner, a final helping of politics
* First primary settled, campaigns mull new tactics
* On campaign trail, it's a frantic pace
* Vow of tenacity keeps Bradley's spirits high, focus keen
* For vice president's campaign, no letup in asking for votes

NECN VIDEO

New England Cable News
* Forbes praises McCain win, asks for more support
* Keyes will stay in race, despite big N.H. loss
* Gore wins the Democratic N.H. primary over Bradley
* Bradley greets voters at polls
* Will Bradley triumph?
* Turnout heavy in Granite State
Can McCain pull off a victory?
Gore makes a last minute effort

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EARLIER COVERAGE
* Gore wins close race among Democrats
* McCain savors big win over Bush in GOP race
* True to tradition, N.H. tests front-runners
* McCain impressed voters as straight shooter
* GOP voters happier with candidates than in '96
* Independents say character was key to vote
* Granite State voters have their say
* N.H. Secretary of State again predicts high turnout
* Keys to reading the New Hampshire returns
* Bradley, McCain win Dixville Notch, Hart's Location



   

Why New Hampshire Republicans and Democrats voted as they did:

REPUBLICANS:

ISSUES: "Moral values" was the most popular issue among Republicans, cited by one in four as most important. Taxes was second at 18 percent, followed by world affairs and the combination of Social Security and Medicare, which each had 12 percent. Just 6 percent picked abortion.

John McCain was the No. 1 choice of every group except for those who picked taxes. Among the tax group, Steve Forbes placed first, followed by George W. Bush and then McCain.

QUALITIES: Thirty-five percent of voters said that having a candidate who "stands up for what he believes in" was most important to them. That was followed by 18 percent who said they were looking for a "strong and decisive leader."

McCain won all but two groups. He lost the 11 percent who picked "best represents conservative values." Those voters liked Bush best, followed by Alan Keyes. He also lost the 7 percent who most valued the ability to win in the general election -- those voters overwhelmingly picked Bush.

WHAT REALLY MATTERS: Voters were roughly divided as to whether issues or personal qualities were most important. McCain was No. 1 and Bush was No. 2 among both groups. Forbes and Keyes did substantially better among those who thought issues mattered most, with Forbes taking 21 percent of the "issue" voters.

INDEPENDENTS: Nearly one in three Republican voters was not registered with either party, and 61 percent of these independents voted for McCain. Just 19 percent went for Bush. McCain also won among Republican voters, taking 44 percent to Bush's 35 percent.

Nearly four out of 10 McCain voters were independents, compared with just two in 10 Bush voters.

PHILOSOPHY: McCain won among liberal and moderate Republicans. Half of voters called themselves conservative, and Bush and McCain split this vote almost evenly.

EDUCATION: McCain did best with those who had the most schooling, attracting 56 percent of those with postgraduate degrees. Bush did best among those without a high school degree.

NEW VOTERS: 15 percent of voters didn't participate in the 1996 primary, and nearly half of them went to McCain. Bush took 35 percent of those who didn't vote last time.

ABORTION: Half the GOP voters say abortion should be legal all or most of the time, and they were most likely to vote for McCain. Twelve percent said abortion should always be illegal, and they divided their votes, with about a third for Bush and roughly one-fourth each for Keyes and McCain.

McCAIN IN MILITARY: About two-thirds of voters said McCain's military record was very or somewhat important, and about two-thirds of that group voted for McCain.

McCain has made much of his military experience, but he did no better with veterans than he did with the rest of the voters.

BUSH'S KNOWLEDGE: One-third of Republican voters thought Bush lacks the "knowledge to serve effectively as president." Three in four of these voters picked McCain, with Forbes and Keyes sharing the rest.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE: Bush suggested campaign finance reform would hurt the GOP, but only 13 percent of voters said it would "hurt the political process." Bush did best among them. McCain, who has made campaign finance reform his signature issue, took 56 percent of the overwhelming majority who said it would not hurt the political process.

RELIGIOUS RIGHT: Just 16 percent of voters consider themselves Christian conservatives, and Bush was their top pick, taking more than a third of their votes. McCain took 25 percent and Keyes took 19 percent.

PAYING ATTENTION: More than eight in 10 voters said they followed the presidential debates very or somewhat closely.

HELP FROM DAD: 24 percent of Bush supporters said the fact that Bush is the son of the former president is very or somewhat important.

FORBES-NO PROGRESS: Forbes got 13 percent of the vote, nearly identical to his 1996 performance. Forbes, who spent $29 million of his own money last year on his second presidential campaign, got a third of the New Hampshire voters who said taxes was the top issue, the same percentage he got last time. He got one out of five of those who described themselves as very conservative, compared with one in 10 last time.

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DEMOCRATS:

ISSUES: Education and health care were the most important issues to Democrats. Bill Bradley was favored by those who cared most about health care; Al Gore won those who picked education. Democrats were closely divided between Gore's more modest health care plan and Bradley's.

QUALITIES: About a third of voters said the most important quality in a candidate is that he "stands up for what he believes in," and about seven in 10 of those voters favored Bradley. But having the "right experience" was in second place, with about 21 percent saying it was most important, and more than 90 percent of these voters liked Gore.

WHAT REALLY MATTERS: Democrats were nearly evenly divided as to whether issues or personal qualities were more important. Those who preferred issues were mostly likely to pick Gore; those who liked personal qualities tended toward Bradley.

INDEPENDENTS: Thirty percent of Democratic voters were not registered with either party, and they solidly favored Bradley, with some six in 10 picking him. Registered Democrats favored Gore.

GENDER: Women marginally favored Gore, and men tilted toward Bradley.

INCOME: The more money a voter had, the more likely he or she was to support Bradley. Bradley took 52 percent of those earning more than $100,000 per year; Gore took a majority of those earning less than $30,000.

IDEOLOGY: Half of Democratic voters said they were liberals, and they tilted toward Bradley, though only marginally. Gore won the moderates and conservatives.

IT'S THE ECONOMY: Two-thirds of voters said their personal finances were better off now than they were four years ago, and they favored the vice president. Those who said their finances were worse or about the same picked Bradley.

UNIONS: Gore took six in 10 voters who have a union member in the home. But nearly 80 percent of voters do not have a union member in the home, and they were more closely divided.

BRADLEY'S HEALTH: About one in five voters said they were concerned Bradley's health would interfere with his ability to serve effectively as president. Those voters overwhelmingly picked Gore.

LOOKING TO THE FALL: Six in 10 Democrats said Gore has a better chance of winning in the general election, though one in five of these voters picked Bradley anyway.

CROSSING OVER: More than 40 percent of Democratic voters weighed voting Republican, with nearly all of them considering McCain before taking Democratic ballots. Bradley took most of the would-be McCain voters, though not by a wide margin.

HEALTH CARE: Bradley made health care the centerpiece of his campaign but 35 percent said Gore's plan was the best. About 30 percent picked Bradley's. About three in 10 voters said they were the same.

30 SECONDS ON TV: About a third of voters said they were influenced by candidate advertisements.

PAYING ATTENTION: Nearly one in three voters had personally seen at least one of the candidates, and more than three-quarters of voters paid very close or somewhat close attention to the debates. Those who got their information from newspapers were more likely to support Bradley; those who got it from TV or from personal meetings favored Gore.

DECISIONS: Voters who made up their minds on election day favored Bradley by a 2-1 margin.

The exit polls were conducted by Voter News Service, a consortium of The Associated Press, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC. VNS surveyed 2,227 voters in the GOP primary and 1,686 voters in the Democratic primary as they came out of precincts Tuesday. The poll had an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points for the overall Democratic sample and 4 percentage points for Republicans, larger for subgroups of each.