True to tradition, New Hampshire tests front-runners

By David Espo, Associated Press, 02/01/00

WASHINGTON -- New Hampshire jolted one front-runner, Republican George W. Bush, and rewarded the other, Vice President Al Gore, Tuesday night in the nation's first primary, pivot point of a White House campaign that soon will become a costly national competition.

NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS
Republican
98% of precincts reporting
McCain 49%
Bush 31%
Forbes 13%
Keyes 6%
Bauer 1%
Democrats
98% of precincts reporting
Gore 52%
Bradley 47%
Percentages will not necessarily add to 100.

FROM THE GLOBE
* Democrats fight to a close finish
* Independents turn GOP contest
* Contrarians speak up, leaders get wake up call
* Arizona senator has found strength in his weaknesses
* Independent voters say character was key to decision
* Why they voted the way they did
* Result no setback for Bush backer Cellucci
* Primary shows off NBC synergy
* Independents seen taking up the insurgents' fight
* Bauer, Keyes unbowed as they vow to soldier on
* Forbes hopes to make it a three-way race
* Bush campaign says it's ready to move on
* In Granite State diner, a final helping of politics
* First primary settled, campaigns mull new tactics
* On campaign trail, it's a frantic pace
* Vow of tenacity keeps Bradley's spirits high, focus keen
* For vice president's campaign, no letup in asking for votes

NECN VIDEO

New England Cable News
* Forbes praises McCain win, asks for more support
* Keyes will stay in race, despite big N.H. loss
* Gore wins the Democratic N.H. primary over Bradley
* Bradley greets voters at polls
* Will Bradley triumph?
* Turnout heavy in Granite State
Can McCain pull off a victory?
Gore makes a last minute effort

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EARLIER COVERAGE
* Gore wins close race among Democrats
* McCain savors big win over Bush in GOP race
* True to tradition, N.H. tests front-runners
* McCain impressed voters as straight shooter
* GOP voters happier with candidates than in '96
* Independents say character was key to vote
* Granite State voters have their say
* N.H. Secretary of State again predicts high turnout
* Keys to reading the New Hampshire returns
* Bradley, McCain win Dixville Notch, Hart's Location



   

Bush fell to Arizona Sen. John McCain by a Texas-sized margin that the winner said would give him the momentum needed to press ahead with his "national crusade" against special interests.

Bush, a winner in Iowa's caucuses a week ago, said he had been jostled on the same "bump in the road" that others in his position had encountered in elections past.

Gore's victory over former Sen. Bill Bradley was narrower, but solid enough, especially for a candidate who had trailed in the pre-primary polls for several weeks. "We're going to march all the way down the field from state to state," he said after adding New Hampshire to his Iowa victory last week.

Bush thus joined a list of national front-runners tarnished in New Hampshire. Republican Bob Dole lost the state in 1996 but won the nomination; Democrat Walter F. Mondale was ambushed but recovered in 1984. Bush's father, George Bush, was twice embarrassed, in 1980, when he lost after winning the Iowa caucuses, and again in 1992, when as president, he had to fend off Pat Buchanan in a closer-than-expected contest.

While New Hampshire nourished McCain, it made also-rans out of Republicans Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer. Bauer, running last, may become the next campaign drop-out.

McCain said his victory in the nation's first primary meant his message of political reform was the right one, adding, "this will give us the momentum we needed" to compete in the primaries ahead. He's skipping next week's primary in Delaware -- which Bush and Forbes will contest -- and focus on a Feb. 19 primary in South Carolina, where the Bush camp claims it has built a "firewall."

The Bush campaign counters it has a "50-state strategy," and its strength will have become evident by March 7. That's when the GOP will have 579 delegates at stake in 12 states, California, New York and Ohio among them, a costly competition that will stretch McCain thin.

The long-term odds still favor Bush, given his overwhelming financial and organizational resources, pre-positioned around the nation, and Republican rules that offer few if any delegates to second-place finishers in the primaries ahead.

The most recent federal reports listed Bush with cash on hand of $31.4 million. McCain trailed with $7.7 million, although $6.2 million is due from the federal government.

But McCain's win, by a double-digit margin, is likely to send ripples of concern through the party establishment, the members of Congress, governors and others who have lined up with him, and now find that McCain's message of political reform has resonated so well with New Hampshire voters.

Exit polling conducted by Voter News Service, a consortium of the AP and television networks, indicated that independents, permitted to cast ballots in either primary, accounted for nearly one-third of vote in each race. The survey indicated they tilted strikingly toward the anti-establishment candidates, McCain and Bradley.

McCain's critical strategic decision was to stay out of Iowa's costly caucuses last week, calculating that he would merely be one of the runners-up there, and not a very strong one. Instead, he camped in New Hampshire and rode his bus, the "Straight Talk Express," to more than 100 town meetings.

McCain's victory was striking for its breadth -- polling place interviews said he led Bush for support in all age groups and income levels; levels of education and religious groups; and all ideologies except for self-identified "very conservative" voters.

Only 6 percent of the GOP primary voters listed electability in the fall as the most important quality in their vote, compared with 12 percent last week in Iowa.

On the Democratic side, Bradley said, "we're ready and eager to continue the fight."

But the New Jersey Democrat had led in the polls until recent weeks, when the vice president overtook him, and Gore thus became the first Democrat in two decades to capture both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested campaign.

Unlike the Republican race, the Democratic campaign is a more even match when it comes to financing. Recent figures show Gore with $5.7 million on hand, plus $12.4 million expected from the federal presidential campaign checkoff fund. Bradley's report listed $8.3 million on hand, with $11.4 million due from the FEC.

Also unlike Republicans, the Democrats have a five-week period of no elections, followed by what amounts to a mini-national primary on March 7: 15 states, with 1,623 delegates at stake, awarded proportionally according to the vote.