NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS Republican 98% of precincts reporting McCain 49% Bush 31% Forbes 13% Keyes 6% Bauer 1% Democrats 98% of precincts reporting Gore 52% Bradley 47% Percentages will not necessarily add to 100. FROM THE GLOBE Democrats fight to a close finish Independents turn GOP contest Contrarians speak up, leaders get wake up call Arizona senator has found strength in his weaknesses Independent voters say character was key to decision Why they voted the way they did Result no setback for Bush backer Cellucci Primary shows off NBC synergy Independents seen taking up the insurgents' fight Bauer, Keyes unbowed as they vow to soldier on Forbes hopes to make it a three-way race Bush campaign says it's ready to move on In Granite State diner, a final helping of politics First primary settled, campaigns mull new tactics On campaign trail, it's a frantic pace Vow of tenacity keeps Bradley's spirits high, focus keen For vice president's campaign, no letup in asking for votes NECN VIDEO Forbes praises McCain win, asks for more support Keyes will stay in race, despite big N.H. loss Gore wins the Democratic N.H. primary over Bradley Bradley greets voters at polls Will Bradley triumph? Turnout heavy in Granite State Can McCain pull off a victory? Gore makes a last minute effort These video clips are viewed using RealPlayer. Get RealPlayer | Help EARLIER COVERAGE Gore wins close race among Democrats McCain savors big win over Bush in GOP race True to tradition, N.H. tests front-runners McCain impressed voters as straight shooter GOP voters happier with candidates than in '96 Independents say character was key to vote Granite State voters have their say N.H. Secretary of State again predicts high turnout Keys to reading the New Hampshire returns Bradley, McCain win Dixville Notch, Hart's Location

He's got to beat Gov. George Bush in the voting that will remodel the Republican race.

The Democratic verdict will determine whether Vice President Al Gore really is vulnerable to challenger Bill Bradley, whose campaign is braced against defeat, aiming at least to come close.

Those are keys to reading the returns in the first of the presidential primaries Tuesday.

Close won't suffice for McCain in the five-name Republican contest. His strategy for overtaking Bush nationally hinges on winning in New Hampshire and using that boost to catch the front-runner in his next chosen test, in South Carolina on Feb. 19.

There's a troubled record of victory forecasts in the leadoff primary state. Sen. Edmund S. Muskie lost ground by winning without a landslide in 1972. Ronald Reagan almost upset President Gerald R. Ford in 1976, but the outcome was judged a setback to his challenge because his state chairman had said he'd win outright.

Given those lessons, candidates have tried to avoid raising expectations about their prospects. Not McCain.

"I am confident of victory," he said in Keene on Monday. He has staked his challenge on it by concentrating on New Hampshire, skipping the first GOP competition in Iowa, where Bush won and Steve Forbes ran second in caucus voting on Jan. 24.

Forbes, who claimed success in 30 percent of the vote there -- Bush got 41 percent -- is in more difficult territory in New Hampshire, running third in the polls, looking for enough of the GOP vote to claim his self-financed campaign stands a chance as a more conservative alternative to Bush and McCain.

But his campaign acknowledges that he can't do it without a breakthrough primary win in one of the states ahead. He'd have to upset Bush, McCain or both to manage it.

Another ardent conservative, Gary Bauer, could be near the end of his campaign, which almost folded after he ran fourth in Iowa, behind Alan Keyes. Bauer never was a threat to the leaders, but he was a goad from the right in eight campaign debates.

McCain, running as a GOP reformer against the establishment, especially the campaign finance system, began far behind but overtook Bush, edging ahead in New Hampshire polls now too close to call either as a clear favorite.

Bush stuck to the custom of hedged forecasts, saying he'll do well, that he doesn't expect to lose -- but that his campaign is a national one that will survive whatever the outcome.

He leads McCain comfortably in polls of South Carolina Republicans.

John Weaver, McCain's national campaign coordinator, said the senator can catch Bush there with the boost of a New Hampshire victory and an intensive, 16-day campaign drive.

But McCain must go there with a win in his column, or he will go there limping against Bush. A New Hampshire defeat would be a stumble for Bush, but he's got the advantages of the national lead, a record campaign treasury, and powerful alliances in the states ahead.

For Bradley's Democratic challenge, New Hampshire is not a pass-fail test; the former New Jersey senator said he has the resources and the determination to go into what he calls the national campaign to come.

There are no more delegate-awarding Democratic contests until March 7, the day of primaries in 11 states, California and New York among them.

Bradley's strength in New Hampshire will determine whether he gets there as an insurgent in a position to overtake Gore, or as a twice-defeated challenger struggling for a revival.

A Gore victory in New Hampshire would inevitably prompt pressure from Democratic leaders for Bradley to yield and end the heightening hostilities of their campaign attacks and counter-attacks. Short of beating the vice president, Bradley can't avoid that talk. But a close count against Gore would make it easier to rebut.

It is the Democratic establishment he is challenging anyhow. He says they stand for the old politics, he wants something new.

Democratic congressional leaders chimed in for the Gore campaign with a letter urging Bradley to stop "negative, personal attacks," to which two Senate allies of the challenger retorted Monday that he was only telling the truth.

"We are not trying to divide the party," said Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska. Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota said Bradley was the man under attack, until he'd had it with Gore.