John McCain and wife Cindy wave to the crowd at the Crown Plaza Hotel in Nashua following their New Hampshire primary win. (AP Photo)

Independents turn GOP contest in McCain's favor

By Michael Kranish and Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 2/2/2000

ANCHESTER, N.H. - Senator John McCain, a Vietnam war hero who bet his presidential campaign on a strong New Hampshire showing, rode a wave of support from independents last night to easily defeat the better-financed and much-endorsed Texas Governor George W. Bush.

NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS Republican 98% of precincts reporting McCain 49% Bush 31% Forbes 13% Keyes 6% Bauer 1% Democrats 98% of precincts reporting Gore 52% Bradley 47% Percentages will not necessarily add to 100. FROM THE GLOBE Democrats fight to a close finish Independents turn GOP contest Contrarians speak up, leaders get wake up call Arizona senator has found strength in his weaknesses Independent voters say character was key to decision Why they voted the way they did Result no setback for Bush backer Cellucci Primary shows off NBC synergy Independents seen taking up the insurgents' fight Bauer, Keyes unbowed as they vow to soldier on Forbes hopes to make it a three-way race Bush campaign says it's ready to move on In Granite State diner, a final helping of politics First primary settled, campaigns mull new tactics On campaign trail, it's a frantic pace Vow of tenacity keeps Bradley's spirits high, focus keen For vice president's campaign, no letup in asking for votes NECN VIDEO Forbes praises McCain win, asks for more support Keyes will stay in race, despite big N.H. loss Gore wins the Democratic N.H. primary over Bradley Bradley greets voters at polls Will Bradley triumph? Turnout heavy in Granite State Can McCain pull off a victory? Gore makes a last minute effort These video clips are viewed using RealPlayer. Get RealPlayer | Help EARLIER COVERAGE Gore wins close race among Democrats McCain savors big win over Bush in GOP race True to tradition, N.H. tests front-runners McCain impressed voters as straight shooter GOP voters happier with candidates than in '96 Independents say character was key to vote Granite State voters have their say N.H. Secretary of State again predicts high turnout Keys to reading the New Hampshire returns Bradley, McCain win Dixville Notch, Hart's Location

''A wonderful New Hampshire campaign has come to an end, but a great national crusade has just begun,'' McCain, 63, told a joyous throng of supporters at Nashua's Crowne Plaza Hotel.

Bush, after telephoning his congratulations to McCain, acknowledged his defeat at a rally last night at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown.

''New Hampshire has long been known as a bump in the road for front-runners. And this year will be no exception.''

But Bush, who points to the fact that McCain's campaign focused almost exclusively on New Hampshire, emphasized that the road to the White House is a long one. ''Mine will go through all 50 states and I intend it to end at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,'' the Texas governor said.

With McCain skipping next week's primary in Delaware, the next major test will come in South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary Feb. 19. Bush leads by a considerable margin in the polls there and has raised far more money than McCain, but the Arizona senator is hoping his strong Granite State performance will kick off a burst of publicity and contributions.

''You can't help but be amazed by the size of this,'' McCain said of the vote in the presidential suite at the hotel shortly after television networks declared him the winner. ''It's across the board. It came from all sectors - conservatives, moderates, liberals, women. It's a win for the message. The people in Washington are going to wake up.''

His wife Cindy's eyes filled with tears as she heard the news, and two of their sons, Jimmy and Jack, jumped up and down.

''It really happened,'' Cindy McCain said.

The other three GOP candidates - Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, and Gary Bauer - trailed far behind. For Forbes, who was making his second run for the White House and placed a strong second in Iowa, it was a particularly tough night. But the magazine publisher said he would continue.

''Make no mistake, this fight has just begun,'' Forbes said.

In the storied history of the first-in-the-nation primary, McCain's victory - and its size - may be one of the most improbable.

McCain was given little chance of winning the primary when he entered the contest last year. As recently as August, Bush led McCain by 44 percent to 12 percent in a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll. Indeed, McCain, who frequently mixed his political talk with self-deprecating humor, never tired of saying that he was once at 3 percent in polls that had a 5 percent margin of error, meaning that his standing could be ''below zero.''

But McCain, who took to calling everyone here ''my dear friends,'' made up the difference by conducting 114 town meetings, touting his war record in a best-selling biography, and making himself endlessly accessible to the public and media. He became a fixture in the state, partly due to a strategic decision to skip the caucuses in Iowa.

Despite McCain's victory, many analysts believe he still faces an uphill battle against Bush. The Texas governor is the candidate backed by most of the Republican establishment, which worked against Bush here but could help him in many other states. Bush has raised $70 million, compared to McCain's $13.6 million.

McCain won overwhelmingly among independents who voted in the Republican primary and, by a more narrow margin, he beat Bush among registered Republicans, according to exit polls. McCain not only made headway due to his maverick style and his war experiences, but also because he campaigned on several issues that appealed to independent-minded voters. He called for an overhaul of the campaign finance system, a massive effort to shore up Social Security and elimination of the national debt.

Bush, meanwhile, bet his campaign on a huge tax cut program and only began to talk in detail about Social Security and the national debt in recent days, superimposing a graphic on the issues over his regular ads.

McCain's victory here does not, by any means, set him on a sure path to the nomination. New Hampshire voters are famous for their contrary nature and independence, giving primary victories to Gary Hart in 1984 and Patrick J. Buchanan in 1996. In both of those cases, the better-established candidates, Walter Mondale and Bob Dole, went on to win the nomination - and then lose in the general election.

Bush's problems in New Hampshire became evident late last year, when he declined to participate in a long-scheduled debate at Dartmouth College. Bush's nonappearance, along with his relatively light schedule in the state, did not sit well with many voters who want candidates to adhere to New Hampshire's tradition of accessibility.

''Bush not showing up at the first debate was definitely a factor,'' said US Representative Charles Bass, a New Hampshire Republican who backs Bush but had warned him about the state's unpredictability. ''It gave McCain a free platform. I think if Bush had to do it again, he would have gone.''

But Bass, like many Bush backers, doubted whether McCain's success here will be equaled elsewhere. ''McCain ran a designer campaign for New Hampshire ... tooled to appeal to independents,'' he said.

Bush learned about his crushing defeat forecast in the exit polls at 1:30 p.m. from senior adviser Karl Rove. His reaction ''was quiet and confident and steel and will and it was really impressive,'' Rove said.

For Forbes, the only good news out of the primary was that McCain won. Forbes had boldly predicted that he would finish in the top two and that Bush would come in third. Forbes had hoped to receive a boost in the polls after his strong second-place Iowa finish. But Forbes's focus on the flat tax, his antiabortion emphasis and his self-described ''charismatically challenged'' manner did not win over nearly enough voters. But Forbes said he will not drop out of the race regardless of how he finishes in New Hampshire.

''There was an attempt for a coronation,'' Forbes said last night. ''What this underscores, though, is now begins the battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. And now I make this appeal to conservatives who may have backed others because of inevitability. I plead with you: Please come home. Make no mistake, this fight has just begun.''

The other two candidates, Keyes and Bauer, based their campaigns on their strong antiabortion views but had little hope of a strong showing in this state, where the majority of voters tell pollsters that they favor abortion rights.

Globe Staff writers Yvonne Abraham, with McCain, and Michael Crowley, with Forbes, contributed to this report.