By Thomas Oliphant, Globe Columnist, 2/2/2000

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- A top adviser to Arizona Senator John McCain had a one-word description for his boss's shocking obliteration of George W. Bush's New Hampshire campaign last night: iceberg.

NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS Republican 98% of precincts reporting McCain 49% Bush 31% Forbes 13% Keyes 6% Bauer 1% Democrats 98% of precincts reporting Gore 52% Bradley 47% Percentages will not necessarily add to 100. FROM THE GLOBE Democrats fight to a close finish Independents turn GOP contest Contrarians speak up, leaders get wake up call Arizona senator has found strength in his weaknesses Independent voters say character was key to decision Why they voted the way they did Result no setback for Bush backer Cellucci Primary shows off NBC synergy Independents seen taking up the insurgents' fight Bauer, Keyes unbowed as they vow to soldier on Forbes hopes to make it a three-way race Bush campaign says it's ready to move on In Granite State diner, a final helping of politics First primary settled, campaigns mull new tactics On campaign trail, it's a frantic pace Vow of tenacity keeps Bradley's spirits high, focus keen For vice president's campaign, no letup in asking for votes NECN VIDEO Forbes praises McCain win, asks for more support Keyes will stay in race, despite big N.H. loss Gore wins the Democratic N.H. primary over Bradley Bradley greets voters at polls Will Bradley triumph? Turnout heavy in Granite State Can McCain pull off a victory? Gore makes a last minute effort These video clips are viewed using RealPlayer. Get RealPlayer | Help EARLIER COVERAGE Gore wins close race among Democrats McCain savors big win over Bush in GOP race True to tradition, N.H. tests front-runners McCain impressed voters as straight shooter GOP voters happier with candidates than in '96 Independents say character was key to vote Granite State voters have their say N.H. Secretary of State again predicts high turnout Keys to reading the New Hampshire returns Bradley, McCain win Dixville Notch, Hart's Location

It's cute, but the McCain campaign has already been much more than a large piece of ice, just as the Bush campaign has already been much more than a lumbering ocean liner.

The major shock to Bush was that McCain appears to have whipped him within a rather normal Republican electorate. Everyone assumed that the campaign finance reformer and the most famous passenger on the Straight Talk Express would take off like a rocket among the large chunk of independent voters who showed up yesterday. And he did. But that wasn't anything close to the whole story.

What also stunned the Bushies was that McCain beat them among normal, loyal Republican voters, including conservative ones, and was as strong among men as among women and across all income groups and education levels. What that means is that as the campaign gets set for the South Carolina primary on Feb. 19 and the one in Michigan three days later, the Bush people have no easy target to shoot at.

At least in New Hampshire, they also do not appear to have much firepower from the issue they thought two months ago would seal the governor's victory - his advocacy of a $1.4 trillion-or-so tax cut.

In last night's returns, twice as many voters (nearly 30 percent) said they believe the advocacy of strong moral values is more important than taxes as a voting issue. And taxes had to compete with making Social Security secure for the voters' priority list.

That means, worried Bush advisers agreed last night, that they will have to go after McCain the man, not McCain the advocate of a more sensible tax cut.

Since they obviously can't assault the character of a man with McCain's past, that appears to mean that the argument henceforth will be that he is not a ''real'' Republican. They will argue that more than a near-clone of Al Gore and Bill Clinton in his ideas, McCain is unfaithful to Republican principles.

It doesn't sound like desperation yet, but John McCain has shaken the Bush campaign to its smug and lavish foundation.

Thomas Oliphant is a Globe columnist.